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MARCH 8,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

A MAJOR UPSET – Socialist/Democrat Bernie Sanders won the Michigan primary, narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton in a state that Clinton had expected to carry, and a major industrial state as well.  It won't do much to dent Hillary's lead in the delegate count, but could be an important marker if Clinton starts losing the big industrial states that are part of the Democratic base.  We'll see about that starting next Tuesday.  Meanwhile, Hillary won Mississippi, largely on the strength of the black vote.

TRUMP TRUMPED ONLY ONCE – Trump took the main events today, Mississippi and Michigan, but Ted Cruz beat him in Idaho.  Michigan was YUGE for Trump.  He showed that he could defeat all comers in a state dominated by industrial workers who are hurting.  The victories tonight set Trump up for the decisive contests next Tuesday in Ohio and Florida.  If he takes those two states, he'll be on a clear road to the nomination, with few options open to any opponent.

RUBIO FADES – There's no doubt about it, Marco Rubio is, as of tonight, fading from the electoral scene.  He will probably be gone completely if he loses his home state of Florida next week.  I regret it.  I had thought he'd be the most effective Republican candidate against the Dems, but the voters disagree, and they always win.  If Rubio and Kasich both get knocked out next week, only Cruz will be left standing, and his job will be to dent Trump badly enough to insure an open convention.

TRUMP – I watched his victory speech tonight.  It was the usual weirdness, an endless ego trip.  It reminded me of the song from "My Fair Lady," A Hymn to Him.  In this case the him is singing the hymn to himself.  I don't know how long Trump can get away with an act that is so un-presidential.  Dignity and style have to matter in a president.

March 8, 2016       Permalink

PRIMARY DAY – AT 2:28 A.M. ET:  This is another primary day.  The big prizes are Michigan and Mississippi.  Some pollsters have noticed Trump slipping in recent days.  Will that show up in today's voting?  In Ohio and Florida a week from today? 

As voting goes on, busy bees are changing the voter qualification system in a number of states.  The purpose, which is pretty blatant, is to get more Democratic voters to the polls, and make it easier for non-citizens to qualify.  From AP:

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — In a typical month, 2,000 people register to vote in Oregon. In the first six days of this year, more than 4,300 joined the voter rolls under a new initiative that automatically signs up voters when they apply for driver's licenses.

Oregon is the first state to adopt the idea that it is the government's responsibility to register voters — a move that could increase the number of registered voters by 13 percent by the November election.

California has approved similar legislation, and automatic registration bills have been introduced in more than a dozen other states. But it remains to be seen whether the idea will take hold beyond two West Coast states dominated by Democrats or whether the newly registered will decide to participate.

"There's no other fundamental right we have as citizens that requires you to register or fill out a form," said Alex Padilla, California's Democratic secretary of state, who advocated for the law. "I don't have to register somewhere to exercise my freedom of speech. I don't have to fill out a form somewhere to exercise my right to not be discriminated against."

Researchers at the Pew Center on the States reported in 2012, before the last presidential election, that 51 million Americans were eligible to vote but unregistered. Pew said last year that the United States has one of the lowest voter-participation rates of the democratic world.

COMMENT:  Such rot.  The purpose of voter registration is to prevent fraud.  One person, one vote.  Not one person, 20 votes.  Registration is made a voluntary act because it is the citizen who decides or declines to vote.  The government should have no role to play except to take in the registration because government agencies can become politicized.

As to the chap who said he doesn't have to register somewhere to exercise freedom of speech, he might contemplate the term "parade permit," or examine the attack on free speech that is going on at many colleges and universities.  Then we'll talk.

March 8, 2016       Permalink

SHE IS WEIRD – AT 2:15 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton, for whom lying comes naturally, is at it again.  From The Hill:

Hillary Clinton said late Monday the FBI has not informed her that she is the subject of a probe over her email practices as secretary of State.

“I’ve heard others say that neither you nor your lawyers have been apprised that you’re the target of the investigation,” Fox News anchor Bret Baier said to Clinton during a town hall in Detroit.

“Absolutely true,” the Democratic presidential front-runner replied.

“Have your or your lawyers been apprised that your current or former staff are targets of the investigation?” Baier asked.

“Absolutely not,” the former first lady responded.

She could read the newspapers.

Clinton then argued that she committed no wrongdoing by using a personal email account at the State Department.

“I will reiterate because it’s a fact — nothing I sent or received was classified,” she said of her correspondences at the agency.

“There’s much misinformation going on around here,” Clinton continued. "I have said it was the best choice to use a personal email. It was a mistake.

I think she probably meant to say, "wasn't the best choice..."  At any rate, I doubt if the FBI would devote 150 agents to a simple mistake.  We now have been told by credible news sources that there were many classified e-mails on her private server, and subject to hacking by foreign powers. 

“However, I am not alone in that. Many people in the government, past and current, on occasion or as a practice, have done the same.”

Clinton additionally charged that the classification process is needlessly complex and confusing for everyday Americans.

“What happens when you ask or are asked to make information public is that it’s reviewed and different agencies come and give in with their opinions,” she said.

COMMENT:  Oh come on.  There's common sense involved.  She never used common sense.  It isn't for the Clintons.  It's for the common people. 

March 8, 2016       Permalink

WHILE WE VOTE – AT 2:03 A.M. ET:  While we enjoy the privilege of voting, American forces are defending that privilege in places most Americans have never heard of.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — American aircraft on Saturday struck a training camp in Somalia belonging to the Islamist militant group the Shabab, the Pentagon said, killing about 150 fighters who were assembled for what American officials believe was a graduation ceremony and prelude to an imminent attack against American troops and their allies in East Africa.

Defense officials said the strike was carried out by drones and American aircraft, which dropped a number of precision-guided bombs and missiles on the field where the fighters were gathered. Pentagon officials said they did not believe there were any civilian casualties, but there was no independent way to verify the claim. They said they delayed announcing the strike until they could assess the outcome.

It was the deadliest attack on the Shabab in the more than decade-long American campaign against the group, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and a sharp deviation from previous American strikes, which have concentrated on the group’s leaders, not on its foot soldiers.

It comes in response to new concerns that the group, which was responsible for one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on African soil when it struck a popular mall in Nairobi in 2013, is in the midst of a resurgence after losing much of the territory it once held and many of its fighters in the last several years. The planned attack on American and African Union troops in Somalia, American officials say, may have been an attempt by the Shabab to carry out the same kind of high-impact act of terrorism as the one in Nairobi.

COMMENT:  We must now brace for retaliation.  It is remarkable how many Islamic terror groups we are facing, one more fierce than the other.  Of course, the Obama administration came to office calling anti-terror raids "overseas contingency operations."  The left is so lovely with words.

March 8,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 7,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:16 P.M. ET: 

IS MARCO GAINING IN FLORIDA? – From The Hill:   Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has cut Donald Trump's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.  Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent.  It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead.  In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.  Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.  Late deciders have tended to decide against Trump and in favor of either Rubio or Cruz.  The strongest argument against Trump should the Republican convention be contested is that he can't get out of the mid-thirties.  We'll watch Michigan tomorrow, where observers also say that the race seems to be tightening.

WARNING FROM BRITAIN – From Reuters:   LONDON- Islamic State fighters want to carry out "enormous and spectacular" attacks against Britain and the Western lifestyle in general, Britain's most senior anti-terrorism officer said on Monday.  London Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley said the threat from the group which has taken over large parts of Syria and Iraq was evolving, and that it was keen to repeat elsewhere incidents such as last year's Paris shootings and suicide attacks that killed 130 people.  "What we are now seeing in recent months...is the broadening of that threat, more plans to attack Western lifestyle...going from that narrow focus on police and military and symbols of the state to something much broader," Rowley told reporters.  "You see a terrorist group that has big ambitions for enormous and spectacular attacks, not just the types that we've seen foiled to date."  Anyone listening?  I'm afraid we won't wake up again until the next tragic event occurs.

MAJOR CULTURAL NEWS – Fox:   A proposal to ensure pork remained “part of the food on offer in public canteens as well as schools and kindergartens” failed to pass the parliament in a northern German state, according to English language German news site The Local.  Lawmakers in Schleswig-Holstein who supported the plan argued that pork had been removed from menus across the region in order to conform to Islamic customs. Germany has seen an influx of Muslims among the refugees streaming in from Syria and other wartorn parts of the world. Devout Muslims are forbidden from eating pork.   “More and more canteens, kindergartens and schools are taking pork out of their menus so as to cater for religious custom,” Christian Democratic Union parliament leader Daniel Gunther said.  But many in opposing parties mocked the measure.  I'm sure ISIS will appreciate the cultural sensitivity.  No beheadings for an hour.

March 7, 2016       Permalink

BLOOMBERG SAYS NO – AT 5:55 P.M. ET:  Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg announced today that he will not make an independent bid of the presidency.  Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire like Trump, could have financed his own campaign.  From CBS:

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced Monday that he will not be running for president.

Bloomberg made the announcement in an op-ed piece on Bloomberg View.

“But when I look at the data, it’s clear to me that if I entered the race, I could not win. I believe I could win a number of diverse states — but not enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency,” the former mayor wrote.

He continued: “In a three-way race, it’s unlikely any candidate would win a majority of electoral votes, and then the power to choose the president would be taken out of the hands of the American people and thrown to Congress. The fact is, even if I were to receive the most popular votes and the most electoral votes, victory would be highly unlikely, because most members of Congress would vote for their party’s nominee. Party loyalists in Congress — not the American people or the Electoral College — would determine the next president.”

Bloomberg added that he was worried his candidacy could pave the way to Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz winning the presidency.

“As the race stands now, with Republicans in charge of both Houses, there is a good chance that my candidacy could lead to the election of Donald Trump or Senator Ted Cruz. That is not a risk I can take in good conscience,” Bloomberg said.

COMMENT:  Well, there goes a cabinet post in the Trump administration.  Actually, Mayor Mike was giving his non-endorsement to both Trump and Cruz.  I'm not surprised.  Bloomberg is a militant moderate.  He has been both a Republican and a Democrat, and now considers himself an independent.

Now, any third-party effort would probably have to be a group enterprise, with a candidate-yet-to-be-selected at its head.  I would not be shocked if that materialized. 

March 7, 2016       Permalink

THREAT FROM A NUCLEAR-ARMED ENEMY – AT 12:21 P.M. ET:   Of course, the North Koreans weren't supposed to be nuclear-armed.  We had an agreement with them that would have barred their nuclear program.  But they broke the agreement.  Just like the North Vietnamese broke the peace treaty that was supposed to end the Vietnam War, and invaded South Vietnam.  The U.S. did nothing to North Vietnam, did nothing to North Korea, and here we are again, with the Koreans making chilling threats.  From AFP: 

Seoul (AFP) - North Korea threatened "indiscriminate" nuclear strikes against South Korea and the US mainland, as the two allies prepared to kick off large-scale joint military drills on Monday.

The threat to carry out what it described as a "pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice" was made in a statement by the North's powerful National Defence Commission, citing the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army (KPA).

It came just days after leader Kim Jong-Un ordered the country's nuclear arsenal to be placed on standby for use "at any moment," in response to tough new UN sanctions imposed over the North's fourth nuclear test in January and last month's long-range rocket launch.

Pyongyang has issued dire warnings of nuclear attack in the past, usually during periods of elevated military tensions on the divided Korean peninsula.

While the North is known to have a small stockpile of nuclear warheads, experts are divided about its ability to mount them on a working missile delivery system.

The National Defence Commission described the annual South Korea-US military exercises as "undisguised nuclear war drills" that threatened the North's national sovereignty, and vowed an all-out offensive in response to "even the slightest military action."

"The indiscriminate nuclear strike... will clearly show those keen on aggression and war, the military mettle of (North Korea)," said the statement published by the North's official KCNA news agency.

COMMENT:  North Korea should be taken very seriously.  Like the Japan of 1941, the North Koreans probably don't have a serious understanding of the United States, and how we react.  A war can start because of a misunderstanding. 

March 7, 2016       Permalink

OUR NATIONAL DEFENSE – THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:   The elite Navy SEALS are short of...rifles.  From AP:

WASHINGTON – The tip of the spear may be losing its edge.

Navy SEAL teams don't have enough combat rifles to go around, even as these highly trained forces are relied on more than ever to carry out counterterrorism operations and other secretive missions, according to SEALs who have confided in Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif.

After SEALs return from a deployment, their rifles are given to other commandos who are shipping out, said Hunter, a former Marine who served three combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. This weapons carousel undercuts the "train like you fight" ethos of the U.S. special operations forces, they said.

Hunter said he's been contacted by several SEALs, but he declined to provide further information about the weapons they use in order to protect their identities.

U.S. military officials said they were looking into the issue.

Sharing rifles may seem inconsequential. It's not. The weapons, which are outfitted with telescopic targeting sights and laser pointers, are fine-tuned to individual specifications and become intensely personal pieces of gear.

"They want their rifles," Hunter said. "It's their lifeline. So let them keep their guns until they're assigned desk jobs at the Pentagon."

COMMENT:  Symbolic of the shortchanging of the American military during the Obama years.  Shortages are commonplace in military organizations, but shortages of rifles? 

In less than a year we will be free of Barack Obama.  A new president will have to restore the fighting strength, and also the morale of our armed forces.

March 7, 2016       Permalink

THE NEXT EIGHT DAYS – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  We are about to see the most critical eight days in the campaign thus far. Michigan votes tomorrow.  The polls, except one, are aligning for Donald Trump.  If Trump can trounce, he takes away John Kasich's argument that he, Kasich, is the king of the industrial Midwest.  And Trump will regain the momentum that he may have lost last week, in his defeats by Ted Cruz.  A week from tomorrow Ohio and Florida vote.  That may be the decisive day.  As we've noted, Kasich must win his home state of Ohio, and Rubio must win his home state of Florida.  If Trump captures both, and that's where the polls are heading, he may well be impossible to stop, unless there is a contested convention.  The anti-Trump forces have waited too long, but they are fighting.  And don't be shocked if a third party, or some third force on the political scene, emerges.   From Fox: 

Mitt Romney said Sunday that GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz winning two primary states this weekend proves the Texas senator can stop front-runner Donald Trump, but declined to rule out his own White House scenario.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and the Republicans' 2012 presidential nominee, repeated remarks from last week, telling “Fox News Sunday” that he wouldn’t launch an eleventh-hour campaign for president. But he declined to reject being “drafted” at the GOP convention in July to be the party’s general election candidate.

“It would be absurd to say that if I were drafted I’d say no,” Romney said. “We have four strong people running for the nomination. One of them will be the nominee.”

Romney has occasionally weighed in on the 2016 GOP race. But he emerged in full force Thursday when he gave a speech in which he called Trump a “phony” and urged voters to instead back an establishment candidate like Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

“It was a big night for Ted Cruz,” Romney said Sunday about the Texas senator's Saturday wins in the Maine and Kansas caucuses. “That’s because people are starting to take a better look at Donald Trump.”

Romney returned to his argument that Trump touts being a successful New York real estate magnate and billionaire businessman. However, he has a long list of businesses failures including a commercial airline and his Trump University real estate school, Romney said.

“He’s not the real deal,” Romney told Fox. “He’s a phony.”

COMMENT:  Douglas MacArthur once said that all military failures begin with two words:  Too late.  Same with political failures.  Trump's appeal, and his rise, weren't detected early enough by the Republican Party to mount a sustained opposition centered on a candidate.  But the fight going on now is real.  It is intense, and mean.  It's the closest thing to a party civil war that I've seen since the Dixiecrats walked out of the Democratic convention in 1948. 

If I had to bet, I'd say that Trump will be the nominee.   The stop-Trump movement, if it goes all the way to an open convention, can result in Trump leaving the party with his troops if he's not nominated, and that would mean probable defeat for the Republican who does get the nod.

And the FBI has Hillary Clinton on its mind.  What a novel this is.

March 7,  2016     Permalink